Iraqis are their own worst enemies
The trouble with Iraq is the Iraqis, and their lack of national unity will be their undoing. My prediction - the insurgency and the smoldering embers of a potential civil war will continue for several years to come. While the vast majority of Iraqis hate having a foreign power roaming their streets and kicking down their doors (as would I), they also know that they need the Coalition to save them from their own countrymen.
Soldiers, sailors, marines, airmen, and coast guardsmen over here are doing many great things in a really crappy environment. The problem is, the typical American troop believes that Iraq can be a stable democracy far more than the Iraqis do.
In general, the typical Iraqi cares far more for his little family group or tribe, than the nation as a whole. There are some exceptions, but in the norm, they have little or no vision of a greater Iraq. They have no sense of duty to country. They join the army or the police as a way to support their families, not to make the country safe for democracy. Often, they will only serve in the army if they are based close to their homes. I’ve seen nearly a whole battalion desert when they were told they were being transferred to another city many miles away. And why shouldn’t they desert? To them, it’s just a job. A dangerous job, but a job nonetheless. There are no Iraqi laws to prevent someone from deserting from the Iraqi Army. When they decide they don’t want to play anymore, they leave.
The tribalism in Iraq permeates the entire system. I would wager, it is as important to an Iraqi as the differences between Sunni and Shia. Because of this emphasis on tribe and family, corruption and nepotism runs rampant. Basically, unless you are the cousin of some big wig, you don’t get the good jobs (or any job at all).
Speaking of corruption, the Iraqi Army runs rampant with it. A local IA general often sets up checkpoints outside my base, shaking down workers going onto the base - “taxing” them for the opportunity to work. When we find out about it, we intervene - but it’s not like we can fire the general. After all, he’s in the IA, not the U.S. Army and we are only “guests” of the host nation. On the other hand, this same general is quite good at tracking down terrorists, so his indiscretions are tolerated. You get what you pay for, I suppose.
Can Iraq be saved? Who knows? I wager that even if we are successful in taking down the insurgency and turning the Iraqi economy around, we’ll have U.S. forces in this country for the next 50 years, reminiscent of the situation in South Korea, Japan or Germany. The fighting will eventually die down, but we’re not leaving here anytime soon. 10 years from now, U.S. troops will be rotating through here, much like they rotate through South Korea. Iraq will be our bridgehead into the Middle East - keeping Iran at bay. Our numbers will be significantly less, and the number of bases reduced, but we will definitely be here. So much for the Cindy Sheehan-crowd chanting “Bring the troops home.”
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