Study finds linkages between anti-war reporting and Iraqi insurgent attacks
There’s some caveats, but a study by a pair of Harvard economists says that there is a link between anti-war reporting and the numbers of attacks occurring in 65% of the country of Iraq.
…their results show that insurgent groups are not devoid of reason and unresponsive to outside pressures and stimuli. “It shows that the various insurgent groups do respond to incentives and shows that a successful counter insurgency strategy should take that reality into account,” says one of the paper’s coauthors, Jonathan Monten, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
The paper “Is There an ‘Emboldenment’ Effect in Iraq? Evidence From the Insurgency in Iraq” concludes the following:
- In the short term, there is a small but measurable cost to open public debate in the form of higher attacks against Iraqi and American targets.
- In periods immediately after a spike in “antiresolve” statements in the American media, the level of insurgent attacks increases between 7 and 10 percent.
- Insurgent organizations are strategic actors, meaning that whatever their motivations, religious or ideological, they will respond to incentives and disincentives.
Makes sense, and it’s obviously something many of us have been saying since the beginning of the insurgency, shortly after the war in Iraq started. Of course, there’s always the caveats:
- The study does not take into account overall cost and benefit of public debate. Past research has shown that public debate has a positive effect on military strategy, for example, and, in the case of Iraq, might be a factor in forcing the Iraqi government to more quickly accept responsibility for internal security.
- It was not possible, from the data available, to determine whether insurgent groups increased the overall number of attacks against American and Iraqi targets in the wake of public dissent and debate or simply changed the timing of those attacks. This means that insurgents may not be increasing the number of attacks after all but simply changing the days on which they attack in response to media reports.
Maybe so, but think like an insurgent - if you are readily seeing attacks reported in the foreign press (which isn’t difficult, given international access to the media and the internet), and the resulting commentary about how the war is lost - wouldn’t that be an excellent incentive to keep up the attacks? This is especially so when the criticism and hand-wringing is coming from American media. What greater credence is there when Americans are complaining about American policy and military actions?
(Via Hot Air)
Category :
Tags :
Similar Posts:
- The grimmest milestone of all reached
- Attempt to block Arizona anti-illegal alien legislation is thrown out
- The truth about jihadi deaths in Iraq
- How Rumsfield was right on Iraq
- Yes, the Iraq economy is growing
- Al Qaeda faces Iraqi insurgent backlash
- American liberal media and enemy propagandists - two peas in a pod?
- Despite what you’ve heard, casualties are DOWN
- 1 in 4 U.S. Muslims say suicide bombings are "A-OK"
- The surge is working and the anti-war crowd is in denial
Leave a Reply